Though it’s unclear if they are genuinely good either, these are not your old Tigers. The funny thing about yesterday’s defeat is that typically a loss like that is heartbreaking for several reasons. You are going to use all of your good pitchers and waste excellent pitching to get to the eleventh inning and put yourself in that position. The only silver lining in the Cardinals’ loss is that victories and losses just make it more terrible. A fact that, in my opinion, is lessened by winning the series in any case.
They did not lose out on excellent pitching since, in the end, Lance Lynn, Giovanny Gallegos, and Matthew Liberatore did not throw that well. And prior to Homer, that is. The entire game was like seeing a tight rope made of not very good pitching manage to escape without giving up a run. We wasted two excellent innings from Ryan Fernandez, I guess, but you don’t usually lament a defeat because a bullpen had two excellent innings.
It’s also true that nobody the Cardinals like to depend on to secure victories pitched is Ryan Fernandez, even though he might be approaching that point. Unless they manage to throw until the eleventh inning, their pitching would also have little effect on the game. Normally, I would argue that the club would have benefited more from a lesser management in this situation. A less competent manager would leave Lynn in, giving up the lead, even though the Cards only need to pitch eight innings and the bullpen is younger. However, in some ways the Cards aren’t really set up any differently:
in any case, variously configured: Only eighteen pitches were thrown by Fernandez, and Gallegos is undoubtedly available in an emergency. If Liberatore isn’t available right now, so what? I’d prefer not to see him in the lead. Furthermore, John King and Nick Robertson are as accessible as possible in case of a blowout in either direction. However, this is meant to be a preview for the series. concerning a group that isn’t the Cardinals. The Cardinals take on the Tigers for the next three games. I have terrible news if all you know about the Tigers is that they haven’t been good the last several years. This is not the Tigers of 2022. The Tigers are not too bad. Not particularly good, but definitely not a series, we can presume victory. Upon initial inspection, their +3 run differential suggests that, despite their 16-12 record, they are a.500 squad. However, we can go further than that. The offense of the Tigers has been poor. Do they need to improve? Probably, albeit the majority of their batters fall into one of two extremes: they either significantly exceed their prediction or are surprisingly underwhelming. There is hardly any room for compromise. Kerry Carpenter (132 wRC+) and Riley Greene (144 wRC+), the former top prospect, both appear genuine. Being only 23, Greene was formerly ranked as the top prospect, so it wouldn’t be shocking if he made a breakthrough. Carpenter has a lifetime 123 wRC+, despite only having 661 PAs. The third
Kerry Carpenter (132 wRC+) and Riley Greene (144 wRC+), the former top prospect, both appear genuine. Being only 23, Greene was formerly ranked as the top prospect, so it wouldn’t be shocking if he made a breakthrough. Carpenter has a lifetime 123 wRC+, despite only having 661 PAs. It’s obvious that the third person, who is killing it, is an anomaly. Although he is not a 165 wRC+ hitter, Mark Canha is a rather decent hitter. His xwOBA stands at.354. which, considering he is 35, would still be his greatest wOBA since 2020. He’s not that excellent, even though my fantasy team would love to have him.
After then, all the news is bad. Spencer Torkelson’s xwOBA suggests he deserves even worse than his 70 wRC+. In two of the last five games, he hasn’t even started. Colt Keith was recently extended and given an incredibly long rope to work things out. He has 17 wRC+ in nearly 100 PAs. He has only had one extra base hit, a double. Javier Baez’s wRC+ is 45. Jake Rogers has a 34.4 K% and nearly doubles his wRC+ to 53. Parker Meadows’ wRC+ is 26.
To be quite honest, they rank fifth in baseball for ERA. They rank fifteenth in FIP and xFIP, though. I don’t really notice anything exceptional about any of the players, and it seems like an average bullpen overall. Although he is more of a groundball specialist than a strikeout pitcher, Jason Foley is a solid reliever. His ERA is 1.50. He should be closer to a 3.00–3.50 ERA, in my opinion. Good pitcher, perhaps not as good as you would like your closer to be. Andrew Chafin does well. If nothing else, Alex Lange is good this year (he wasn’t that good last year).
Against the Mets, Mikolas really got off to a great start, and I hope he can keep it up. Since I don’t really believe in Mikolas, I should probably assume that the Cardinals lose this game. However, Mikolas’s best opponent will be a team that ranks eighth in K rate and sixth in ISO. It is possible that he will strike out batters, yet it is unclear if the Tigers will discipline him for errors. Basically, it’s all about keeping their three big boys in line.
About Olson, I really don’t know what to say; he seems like a really good pitcher, albeit one whose ERA is probably a little higher. In all honesty, it appears that the Cardinals will lose this series until their offense finds its groove. To my taste, they are a bit too dependent on Matz winning that start. Naturally, since this is baseball, they will somehow win the following two games despite losing the Matz start.